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User Guide Chapter 7

7. Forecasting

The Forecasting module projects where the business is heading — cash, revenue, gross profit, receivables, and runway — using proven statistical time-series methods. Open it from Modules → Forecasting.

  • Cockpit URL: /a/<team-slug>/qbo/forecasting/cockpit/
  • Available to 👁️ Members (view) and 👤 Admins (configure). Some advanced methods require the Advanced Forecasting add-on.

How the forecasts are produced. Forecasts are computed with established statistical models from your own historical data. Every projection is deterministic and explainable — you can open a methodology breakdown that shows the math step by step. There is no external processing of your data and no guesswork.

7.1 The Forecasting Cockpit

The cockpit is the main interactive workspace:

  • A forward projection with a confidence range (95% interval) so you see the likely band, not just a single line.

  • A data-quality indicator telling you how much history is backing the forecast.

  • Scenario controls to test "what-if" changes and watch the projection respond.

First time in? Run the setup flow (/qbo/forecasting/setup/) to get the cockpit oriented to your data.

7.2 Forecast areas (tabs)

Forecasting is organized into focused tabs:

Tab URL Projects
Cash cockpit Operating cash position over the coming months.
Revenue /qbo/forecasting/revenue/ Top-line sales trend.
Gross Profit /qbo/forecasting/gross-profit/ Revenue minus cost of goods sold.
AR /qbo/forecasting/ar/ Expected receivable collections.
Runway /qbo/forecasting/runway/ How long cash lasts given the cash forecast.

(URLs relative to /a/<team-slug>.)

7.3 Choosing a forecasting method

OML includes several statistical methods, each suited to different patterns:

  • Seasonal Naïve, Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), Holt, Holt-Winters, Theta, ARIMA, SARIMA, and an Ensemble that blends them.

  • The system can detect seasonality automatically and pick a model that fits, comparing candidates and selecting the best-scoring one.

  • 👤 Admin: set your firm's default method in Settings → Forecast House Default (see Settings).

  • On any forecast you can override the method to compare approaches.

7.4 Scenario modeling

Test decisions before you make them:

  • The scenario tools (/qbo/forecasting/scenario/) let you adjust assumptions and see the effect on the projection — feasibility, the earliest a target is reachable, and how much a line of credit would need to cover a gap.

  • The driver scenario (/qbo/forecasting/driver-scenario/) lets you turn business drivers — such as payroll changes or new hires — into their cash impact.

7.5 Explanations & PDF export

  • Explain any forecast (/qbo/forecasting/<type>/explain/) to read a plain-language methodology summary describing how the projection was built.

  • Download a PDF of the cockpit (/qbo/forecasting/report/pdf/) or of a specific forecast explanation, including the step-by-step math, to share with stakeholders.